JEREMY CORBYN’S raucous online supporters have a simple mantra whenever a new poll appears: “It will go higher.” Dismissed as magical thinking when it began in the spring, it has turned into one of 2017’s more accurate political predictions. Labour’s polling almost doubled, from 25% of voters when the election was called in April to 45% in one recent survey. Magical thinking trumped political expertise.
Yet the growth has stalled. On December 3rd a poll by Survation put Labour eight points clear of the Conservatives, who stood on 37. But this was an outlier. Other polls give Labour only a slim lead or put the party level with the Tories. A flurry of governmental scandals and cock-ups, ranging from ministerial resignations to rocky Brexit negotiations, has failed to put a dent in the Conservatives’ polling numbers. Why isn’t Labour doing better?
Start with Brexit. Labour’s position on the…Continue reading